Public proof page
Resin Procurement Watch
Beta framework
Yellow
Current public read / April 10, 2026
Published with permission
Bounded public-data version
Simple state guide: green = go | yellow = wait | red = no-go
Short answer
The public resin page says wait. Input costs point higher for Q2 2026, but utilization is below the pass-through gate.This is a public beta framework built from public inputs. A pilot can add company-specific grades, timing, and contract logic.Signal frame
121 / 213
Historical matches
Scored quarterly events in the public backtest56.8%
Baseline direction rate
Overall directional match rate before gating76%
Utilization gate
Threshold where pass-through became more credible74%
Current utilization
Below the gate, so the page stays yellow: waitPage mechanics
How the live page works.
This page is meant to be inspectable. The panels below show the gate, the inputs, the scorecard, and why the current status is yellow: wait.Utilization gate curve
Above the gate, pass-through looks more credible. Below it, the page stays yellow: wait.Input blend
Henry Hub natural gasEIA benchmark series
60%Petrochemical proxy (BLS PPI)BLS public producer-price proxy
30%WTI crudeEIA anchor input
10%Regime scorecard
All scored events56.8%
High-utilization periods57%
Low-utilization periods37%
Current state
Yellow means wait for a clearer pass-through call.
The public page points toward a Q2 2026 increase in resin costs. With utilization at 74%, below the 76% gate, it stays yellow rather than forcing a green or red call.That is the useful part: the page shows when not to force a call.Methodology
How the public version was built.
This first version was built to answer a real procurement question with public data. A pilot can add company-specific grades, timing, and contract logic later.Build the public blend
Use three public inputs on trailing three-month rolling averages: 60% Henry Hub natural gas, 30% petrochemical proxy from BLS PPI, and 10% WTI crude.Apply the trigger
When the absolute composite move crosses 3% at month-end, the page produces a directional call instead of reacting to every minor shift.Score against realized moves
Compare the page direction with the realized quarterly resin price move. In this bounded beta framework, 121 of 213 historical events matched the realized direction.Gate for pass-through conditions
Overlay plastics-industry utilization. When utilization is below roughly 76%, the public version suppresses the call because suppliers appear less able to pass cost through.What the public page includes
What the public page gives you.
- Thresholds, current read, and the public-data methodology
- One visible curve for the utilization gate and one visible scorecard
- A directional public read that can be evaluated without client data
What the pilot version adds
What a pilot adds.
- Actual resin grades, timing windows, and contract reset logic
- Invoice history and a client-specific interpretation layer
- Alert thresholds tuned for one category, one workflow, and one team
FAQ
Questions this page should answer.
What does the resin procurement watch say now?
The public page says yellow: wait. Public inputs point toward higher Q2 2026 resin cost pressure, but industry utilization is 74%, below the 76% pass-through gate used by this public framework.What data powers the public resin page?
The public version uses trailing three-month averages for Henry Hub natural gas, a BLS petrochemical producer-price proxy, and WTI crude. It does not use client invoice data or private contract terms.What changes in a client pilot?
A pilot can add the actual resin grades, reset windows, supplier contract logic, invoice history, and workflow thresholds needed for a client-specific procurement decision.Public proof to pilot