Public proof page

Resin Procurement Watch

Beta framework

Yellow

Current public read | April 10, 2026

Published with permission

Bounded public-data version

Simple state guide: green = go | yellow = wait | red = no-go

What the current read means

Public inputs point toward higher resin cost pressure in Q2 2026, but this page stays yellow, not green, because utilization is 74%, below the 76% pass-through threshold.This is a public beta framework built from public inputs. A pilot can add company-specific grades, timing, and contract logic.

Signal frame

121 / 213

Historical matches

Scored quarterly events in the public backtest

56.8%

Baseline direction rate

Overall directional match rate before gating

76%

Utilization gate

Threshold where pass-through became more credible

74%

Current utilization

Below the gate, so the page stays yellow: wait

Page mechanics

How this live page works.

This page is meant to be inspectable. The panels below show the gate, the inputs, the scorecard, and why the current status is yellow: wait.

Utilization Gate Curve

Above the gate, pass-through looks more credible. Below it, the page stays yellow: wait.

Input Blend

Henry Hub natural gasEIA benchmark series

60%

Petrochemical proxy (BLS PPI)BLS public producer-price proxy

30%

WTI crudeEIA anchor input

10%

The public version stays narrow: one energy input, one petrochemical proxy, and one crude anchor.

Regime Scorecard

All scored events56.8%

High-utilization periods57%

Low-utilization periods37%

The important result is not just the hit rate. It is that low-utilization periods behaved differently enough that the page now stays yellow instead of forcing a green or red call.

Current state

Yellow = wait for a clearer pass-through call.

The public page points toward a Q2 2026 increase in resin costs. With utilization at 74%, below the 76% gate, it stays yellow rather than forcing a green or red call.That is the useful part: the page shows when not to force a call.

Methodology

How the first public version was built.

This first version was built to answer a real procurement question with public data. A pilot can add company-specific grades, timing, and contract logic later.

1. Build the public blend

Use three public inputs on trailing three-month rolling averages: 60% Henry Hub natural gas, 30% petrochemical proxy from BLS PPI, and 10% WTI crude.

2. Apply the trigger

When the absolute composite move crosses 3% at month-end, the page produces a directional call instead of reacting to every minor shift.

3. Score against realized moves

Compare the page direction with the realized quarterly resin price move. In this bounded beta framework, 121 of 213 historical events matched the realized direction.

4. Gate for pass-through conditions

Overlay plastics-industry utilization. When utilization is below roughly 76%, the public version suppresses the call because suppliers appear less able to pass cost through.

What the public page includes

What the public page gives you.

Thresholds, current read, and the public-data methodology

One visible curve for the utilization gate and one visible scorecard

A directional public read that can be evaluated without client data

What the pilot version adds

What a pilot adds.

Actual resin grades, timing windows, and contract reset logic

Invoice history and a client-specific interpretation layer

Alert thresholds tuned for one category, one workflow, and one team

Public proof to pilot

Start with the public signal. Then combine it with your internal data.

This page is a bounded public-data signal. A pilot adds your actual grades, contract logic, timing windows, and internal context so the signal becomes decision-ready for your workflow.

Try a pilot with internal data See how the public page was built