Dated public example
Resin Procurement Snapshot
Historical snapshot
Wait
Yellow snapshot / April 10, 2026
Built from public data
Published with permission
Status guide: green = go | yellow = wait | red = no-go
Why it said wait
Cost inputs were rising, but industry utilization was 74%, below the 76% gate. The snapshot said wait.This is a historical example, not a recommendation for today.Key numbers
121 / 213
Backtest matches
Quarterly calls that matched the actual direction56.8%
Overall match rate
Before the utilization gate was applied76%
Utilization gate
Threshold for a more credible supplier price increase74%
Snapshot utilization
Two points below the gate on April 10, 2026Why it said wait
Costs were rising. Confidence was not.
The snapshot combined three public cost inputs, then checked whether industry utilization cleared the 76% gate.The 76% gate
The snapshot measured 74%. Because it fell below the 76% gate, the result stayed yellow: wait.The cost inputs
Henry Hub natural gasEIA benchmark series
60%Petrochemical proxy (BLS PPI)BLS public producer-price proxy
30%WTI crudeEIA anchor input
10%What the backtest showed
All scored events56.8%
High-utilization periods57%
Low-utilization periods37%
April 10 result
Rising costs, but not enough pricing power.
The cost inputs pointed to higher Q2 2026 resin costs. Utilization was 74%, below the 76% gate, so the result was wait.The method did not force a yes or no when confidence was weak.Method
Four steps, all visible.
This version used only public data. A company-specific version can add actual grades, contracts, and purchase history.Combine the cost inputs
Take trailing three-month averages for Henry Hub natural gas, a BLS petrochemical price index, and WTI crude. Weight them 60%, 30%, and 10%.Wait for a real move
Only make a direction call when the combined measure moves more than 3% at month-end.Check the calls
Compare each call with the actual quarterly resin price direction. The call matched 121 of 213 times.Apply the utilization gate
When industry utilization is below 76%, mark the result wait. Suppliers may have less ability to pass higher costs through to buyers.Sources and limits.
The snapshot used these five public series. To produce a current reading, refresh each one and run the method again.EIA Henry Hub natural gas spot priceEIA Cushing, Oklahoma WTI spot priceBLS petrochemical manufacturing producer-price indexBLS high-density polyethylene resin producer-price indexFederal Reserve chemical manufacturing capacity utilization
Read how we built itThis snapshot
What you can inspect.
- A dated April 10 reading
- The public inputs, 3% trigger, and 76% gate
- The historical scorecard and published method
Company-specific version
What your data adds.
- Your actual resin grades and reset dates
- Your contract rules, invoices, and purchase history
- Alerts built for your category and workflow
FAQ
Common questions.
What did the snapshot say?
Wait. On April 10, 2026, cost inputs were rising, but industry utilization was 74%, below the 76% gate.What data did it use?
It used public data for Henry Hub natural gas, petrochemical producer prices, WTI crude, resin prices, and industry utilization. It did not use private invoices or contracts.Can I use this reading today?
No. This page preserves the April 10, 2026 result. A current decision requires fresh inputs and a new run of the same method.What would a company-specific version add?
Your resin grades, reset dates, contract rules, invoices, purchase history, and alert thresholds.Current version