Public Signal
Resin Procurement Signal
Suppressed
Current public read | April 10, 2026
Published with permission
Bounded public-data version
Current interpretation
Cost pressure points toward a Q2 2026 resin increase, but the signal stays suppressed because utilization is 74%, below the 76% pass-through gate.This is a bounded public signal for a hypothetical scenario, not a client model.Signal frame
121 / 213
Historical matches
Scored quarterly events in the public backtest56.8%
Baseline direction rate
Overall directional match rate before gating76%
Utilization gate
Threshold where pass-through became more credible74%
Current utilization
Below the gate, so the public call is suppressedSignal mechanics
A public signal, not a finished client model.
The goal is simple: make the read and the thresholds easy to inspect.Utilization Gate Curve
Above the gate, pass-through looks more credible. Below it, the signal stays suppressed.Input Blend
Henry Hub natural gasEIA benchmark series
60%Petrochemical proxy (BLS PPI)BLS public producer-price proxy
30%WTI crudeEIA anchor input
10%Regime Scorecard
All scored events56.8%
High-utilization periods57%
Low-utilization periods37%
Current read
Cost pressure, but no clear pass-through call.
The public signal points toward a Q2 2026 increase in resin costs. With utilization at 74%, below the 76% gate, it stays suppressed.That is the useful part: the signal shows when not to force a call.Methodology
A simple directional framework.
Aaron did not need a finished client model. He needed a directional framework that could later be tuned with client data.1. Build the public blend
Use three public inputs on trailing three-month rolling averages: 60% Henry Hub natural gas, 30% petrochemical proxy from BLS PPI, and 10% WTI crude.2. Apply the trigger
When the absolute composite move crosses 3% at month-end, the signal generates a directional call instead of reacting to every minor shift.3. Score against the outcome
Compare the signal direction with the realized quarterly resin price move. On the first pass, 121 of 213 historical events matched the realized direction.4. Gate for pass-through conditions
Overlay plastics-industry utilization. When utilization is below roughly 76%, the public version suppresses the call because suppliers appear less able to pass cost through.What the public page includes
What the public page gives you.
Thresholds, current read, and the public-data methodology
One visible curve for the utilization gate and one visible scorecard
A directional public signal that can be evaluated without client data
What the pilot version adds
What a pilot adds.
Actual resin grades, timing windows, and contract reset logic
Invoice history and a client-specific interpretation layer
Alert thresholds tuned for one category, one workflow, and one team
Companion file